Kev nthuav dav cua thiab hnub ci zog qeeb heev kom tsis txhob muaj kev hloov pauv huab cua

Kev tsim hluav taws xob tauj dua tshiab tau nce txhua xyoo. Tab sis tom qab txheeb xyuas qhov kev loj hlob ntawm cua thiab hnub ci zog hauv 60 lub teb chaws, cov kws tshawb fawb ntawm Chalmers University of Technology thiab Lund University hauv Sweden thiab Central European University hauv Vienna, Austria, xaus lus tias yuav luag tsis muaj lub teb chaws txav nrawm nrawm kom tsis txhob muaj kev kub ntxhov thoob ntiaj teb ntawm 1.5. ° C los yog txawm 2 ° C.

& quot; Qhov no yog thawj zaug uas qhov kev loj hlob siab tshaj plaws nyob rau hauv ib lub teb chaws tau raug ntsuas kom raug, thiab nws qhia tau hais tias qhov loj loj ntawm qhov kev sib tw ntawm kev hloov cov khoom siv hluav taws xob ib txwm muaj nrog cov khoom siv txuas ntxiv dua tshiab, nrog rau qhov xav tau los tshawb nrhiav ntau yam thev naus laus zis thiab scenarios," hais tias Jessica Jewell, Associate Professor of Energy Transitions ntawm Chalmers University of Technology.

Lub Rooj Sib Tham Sib Tham Txog Kev Nyab Xeeb Kev Nyab Xeeb (IPCC) tau txheeb xyuas cov xwm txheej ntawm lub zog sib xws nrog kev ua kom lub ntiaj teb sov sov qis dua 1.5 ° C lossis 2 ° C. Feem ntau ntawm cov xwm txheej no pom kev loj hlob sai heev ntawm hluav taws xob tauj dua tshiab: qhov nruab nrab kwv yees li 1.4 feem pua ​​​​ntawm tag nrho cov khoom siv hluav taws xob thoob ntiaj teb hauv ib xyoos rau ob qho tib si cua thiab hnub ci zog, thiab ntau dua 3 feem pua ​​​​hauv ntau lub hnub ci zog. Tab sis cov kws tshawb fawb' cov kev tshawb pom tshiab qhia tau tias kev ua tiav qhov kev loj hlob sai li sai tau tsuas yog ua tau rau ob peb lub tebchaws.

Kev ntsuas thiab kwv yees qhov kev loj hlob ntawm cov thev naus laus zis tshiab xws li lub zog txuas ntxiv yog qhov nyuaj, vim tias lawv tsis loj hlob linearly. Hloov chaw, txoj kev loj hlob feem ntau ua raws li qhov hu ua S-nqaj - thaum xub thawj nws nrawm nrawm, tom qab ntawd ruaj khov rau txoj kev loj hlob ib ntus, thiab thaum kawg qeeb qeeb vim kev ua lag luam tau saturated.

& quot; Peb tau los nrog ib txoj kev tshiab: siv cov qauv lej los ntsuas txoj kab nqes ntawm S-kov, uas yog, qhov kev loj hlob siab tshaj plaws tau ua tiav ntawm nws qhov chaw siab tshaj. Nws yog ib txoj hauv kev tshiab los saib kev loj hlob ntawm cov thev naus laus zis tshiab," hais tias Jessica Jewell.

Thaum soj ntsuam 60 lub teb chaws loj tshaj plaws, cov kws tshawb fawb pom tias qhov kev loj hlob siab tshaj plaws rau onshore cua zog yog nyob rau nruab nrab ntawm 0.8 feem pua ​​​​ntawm tag nrho cov hluav taws xob hauv ib xyoos, thiab 0.6 feem pua ​​​​ntawm qhov nruab nrab rau hnub ci - qis dua hauv IPCC cov xwm txheej. Kev loj hlob sai dua 2 feem pua ​​​​ntawm ib xyoos rau cua thiab 1.5 feem pua ​​​​ntawm hnub ci tsuas yog tshwm sim hauv cov tebchaws me xws li Portugal, Ireland thiab Chile.

& quot; Nws yuav zoo li tias kev loj hlob sai yog qhov yooj yim dua kom ua tiav hauv cov teb chaws me me, ntau dua li hauv cov kab sib txawv loj," hais tias Jessica Jewell.

& quot; Ntawm cov teb chaws loj, tsuas yog lub teb chaws Yelemees txog tam sim no tau muaj peev xwm txhawb nqa kev loj hlob ntawm onshore cua zog piv nrog nruab nrab huab cua stabilization scenarios. Hauv lwm lo lus, kom nyob twj ywm rau ntawm kev nyab xeeb lub hom phiaj, tag nrho lub ntiaj teb yuav tsum tsim kom muaj cua zog sai li lub teb chaws Yelemees tsim tsis ntev los no. Tej zaum yuav muaj kev txwv kom ceev cua thiab hnub ci tuaj yeem nthuav dav thiab yog li peb yuav tsum txheeb xyuas qhov ua tau ntawm lwm cov kev daws teeb meem huab cua, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog rau cov neeg Esxias kev lag luam loj hlob sai xws li Is Nrias teb thiab Tuam Tshoj," hais tias Aleh Cherp, tus xibfwb ntawm Environmental Sciences thiab Txoj Cai ntawm Central European University thiab Lund University.