Hnub Ci Zog tuaj yeem pheej yig thiab ntseeg tau thoob plaws Tuam Tshoj los ntawm 2060

Thaum lub rooj sib tham txog kev hloov pauv huab cua hauv UN yuav los tom ntej hauv Glasgow, Scotland, yuav tau tsom mus rau Tuam Tshoj ntau. Raws li lub ntiaj teb' qhov loj tshaj plaws CO2 emitter, Tuam Tshoj' kev siv zog rau decarbonize nws lub zog system yuav yog ib qho tseem ceeb rau lub hom phiaj ntawm kev txwv qhov nce hauv ntiaj teb qhov nruab nrab qhov kub thiab txias rau 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Tuam Tshoj twb tau cog lus loj rau kev hloov pauv nws lub zog hluav taws xob rau kev rov ua dua tshiab, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog lub zog tsim hluav taws xob los ntawm hnub ci, cua thiab dej. Txawm li cas los xij, muaj ntau yam tsis paub txog lub neej yav tom ntej ntawm lub hnub ci zog hauv Suav teb, suav nrog nws cov nqi, kev ua tau zoo thiab daim phiaj sib raug zoo nyob rau xyoo tom ntej. Kev kwv yees tsis ntev los no ntawm tus nqi ntawm lub hnub ci zog yav tom ntej hauv Suav teb tau tso siab rau cov nqi qub thiab overestimated ntawm lub hnub ci vaj huam sib luag thiab lawv cov kev teeb tsa, thiab cov cuab yeej cia xws li lithiumion roj teeb.

Lub hnub ci hluav taws xob yuav raug nqi npaum li cas hauv Suav teb nyob rau xyoo tom ntej, suav nrog cov kev cov nyom uas nws qhov kev hloov pauv tau tshwm sim rau daim phiaj?

Cov kws tshawb fawb los ntawm Harvard, Tsinghua University hauv Beijing, Nankai University hauv Tianjin thiab Renmin University ntawm Tuam Tshoj hauv Beijing tau pom tias lub hnub ci zog tuaj yeem muab 43.2% ntawm Tuam Tshoj' s hluav taws xob xav tau hauv 2060 tsawg dua ob thiab ib nrab US cents ib kilowatthour. Rau kev sib piv, thee fais fab tariffs nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj ranged 3.6 mus rau 6.5 xees ib kilowatthour nyob rau hauv 2019.

Cov kev tshawb fawb tau luam tawm raws li tsab xov xwm npog ntawm Kev Ua Haujlwm ntawm National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).

& quot; Cov kev tshawb pom tau hais txog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm lub zog hloov pauv, tsis yog rau Tuam Tshoj nkaus xwb tab sis rau lwm lub teb chaws, uas ua ke lub hnub ci zog thiab cov tshuab khaws cia ua ib qho pheej yig dua rau cov hluav taws xob hluav taws xob hluav taws xob thiab kev xaiv kab sib txuas ntxiv," hais tias Michael B. McElroy, Gilbert Butler xibfwb ntawm Environmental Studies ntawm Harvard John A. Paulson Tsev Kawm Ntawv ntawm Engineering thiab Applied Sciences (SEAS) thiab tus kws sau ntawv ntawm txoj kev tshawb no.

& quot; Niaj hnub no, kev pab nyiaj pub dawb hnub ci zog tau dhau los ua pheej yig dua li lub zog hluav taws xob hauv feem ntau ntawm Tuam Tshoj, thiab qhov txiaj ntsig zoo tshaj plaws no yuav nthuav dav mus rau tag nrho lub teb chaws vim kev nce qib technology thiab cov nqi poob qis," Xi Lu, Associate Professor, Tsev Kawm Ntawv ntawm Ib puag ncig, Tsinghua University thiab tus kws sau ntawv sib raug zoo." Peb cov txiaj ntsig tau pom tias kev lag luam kev sib tw ntawm lub hnub ci zog ua ke nrog kev nqis peev hauv cov tshuab khaws cia tuaj yeem muab cov txiaj ntsig ntxiv rau kev xa xov hluav taws xob, uas yuav yog qhov tseem ceeb tshwj xeeb rau kev ua haujlwm ntawm lub tshuab hluav taws xob yav tom ntej hauv Suav teb."

Lu tau txais nws Ph.D. los ntawm Harvard Graduate School of Arts thiab Sciences thiab tau pib ua haujlwm rau txoj kev kawm raws li tus kws tshawb fawb tom qab kawm tiav thiab kev tshawb fawb koom nrog ntawm SEAS raws li Harvard China Project ntawm Zog, Kev Lag Luam thiab Ib puag ncig.

Pab pawg tshawb fawb tau tsim cov qauv kev sib koom ua ke los ntsuas lub hnub ci zog hauv Suav teb thiab nws cov nqi txij xyoo 2020-2060. Tus qauv thawj zaug siv rau hauv cov ntsiab lus xws li kev siv av thoob plaws hauv Suav teb, qhov ua tau qaij thiab qhov sib txawv ntawm cov hnub ci vaj huam sib luag, thiab cov xwm txheej zoo li hnub ci hluav taws xob thiab qhov kub thiab txias los kwv yees lub peev xwm ntawm lub hnub ci zog thoob plaws ob qho tib si thiab lub sijhawm.

Pab neeg tom qab ntawd tau koom ua ke cov nqi peev thiab kev hloov pauv thev naus laus zis txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhim kho tus nqi sib tw ntawm lub hnub ci zog piv rau cov hluav taws xob thee tam sim no thiab yav tom ntej. Tsim los ntawm lub hauv paus no, txoj kev tshawb fawb tau tsim cov qauv kev ua kom zoo ib teev los ntsuam xyuas cov nqi ntxiv ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob uas xav tau los ua kom cov kev hloov pauv ntawm lub hnub ci tso tawm kom nws tuaj yeem ua ke rau hauv daim phiaj kom haum rau kev thov hluav taws xob.

Cov kws tshawb fawb thawj zaug pom tias lub cev muaj peev xwm ntawm lub hnub ci PV, uas suav nrog pes tsawg lub hnub ci tuaj yeem teeb tsa thiab ntau npaum li cas hnub ci lawv tuaj yeem tsim tau, hauv Suav teb mus txog 99.2 petawatthours hauv 2020. Qhov no yog ntau tshaj ob zaug hauv lub tebchaws' s tag nrho cov kev siv ntawm lub zog nyob rau hauv tag nrho cov ntaub ntawv, nrog rau tsis tsuas yog hluav taws xob tab sis kuj fuels siv ncaj qha los ntawm lub tsheb, factories, lub tsev cua sov thiab lwm yam. Cov kev tshawb pom pom tias hnub ci PV yog ib qho chaw loj heev rau Tuam Tshoj' s decarbonization.

Tom qab ntawd lawv tau nthuav tawm nws cov nqi sib tw, nrog 78.6% ntawm qhov muaj peev xwm hauv 2020 sib npaug lossis qis dua tus nqi tam sim no ntawm lub zog hluav taws xob hluav taws xob hauv zos, ib qho kev faib tawm kom loj hlob ntxiv. Qhov txiaj ntsig zoo no txhais tau tias Tuam Tshoj tuaj yeem nqis peev hauv kev cia khoom, xws li roj teeb, thiab tseem muaj txiaj ntsig zoo muab 7.2 petawatt-teev lossis 43.2% ntawm lub teb chaws xav tau hluav taws xob los ntawm 2060.

& quot;Tam sim no feem ntau paub tias kev hloov pauv huab cua yuav tsum tau hloov mus deb ntawm fossil zog siv," hais tias Chris P. Nielsen, tus thawj coj ntawm Harvard-China Project thiab tus kws sau ntawv ntawm daim ntawv." Tsis yog ntau tus paub tias decarbonizing lub zog hluav taws xob yog lub linchpin, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog ntau cov haujlwm ua hluav taws xob, thiab qhov kev pab cuam los ntawm kab sib chaws ntawm kev sib txuas ntxiv yog qhov nyuaj tshaj plaws ntawm kev sib tw. Nws' yog qhov kev tawg loj heev, thiab tsis yog rau Tuam Tshoj xwb, yog tias cia tuaj yeem ua rau lub hnub ci fais fab sib txuas ntawm tus nqi sib tw."

& quot; Peb cov kev tshawb fawb qhia tau hais tias yog tias cov nqi pheej yig dua, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog rau kev khaws cia, tuaj yeem muaj lub sijhawm rau lub zog tsheb, lub tsev kub lossis cua txias, lossis los tsim cov tshuaj siv tshuaj, txhua yam siv lub hnub ci zog. Qhov no yuav txuas ntxiv kev nyab xeeb thiab ib puag ncig cov txiaj ntsig ntawm lub hnub ci hluav taws xob nyob deb dhau ntawm lub zog hluav taws xob raws li ib txwm muaj," hais tias Shi Chen, thawj tus kws sau ntawv ntawm cov ntawv uas tau pab coj txoj kev tshawb fawb raws li Tsinghua Ph.D. tub ntxhais kawm thiab ib tus neeg tuaj xyuas hauv Harvard China Project.

Qhov kev tshawb fawb no tau sau los ntawm Chongyu Zhang, Jiacong Li, He Xu, Ye Wu, Shuxiao Wang, Feng Song, Chu Wei, Kebin He thiab Jiming Hao.

Txoj haujlwm no tau txhawb nqa ib feem los ntawm cov nyiaj pab los ntawm Lub Chaw Haujlwm Thawj Tswj Hwm ntawm Harvard University thiab Harvard Global Institute rau Harvard-China Project ntawm Zog, Kev Lag Luam thiab Ib puag ncig.